A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."